Top 10 candidates for renewal: Will JJJ enter the lake next year if he doesn’t stay? How big is Van Jordan’s new contract?

Translator's Note: This article was originally published from CBS, and the author is Sam Quinn. The data in the article are as of the original article as of June 19th local time. The views in the article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform.

contract extensions have largely stifled the modern free agent market and they will be the main focus this summer.

Once upon a time, the top NBA players were used to flowing through the free agent market. Recall how many offseasons were dominated by which team LeBron James or Kevin Durant will sign. That day is over. Since Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Kemba Walker all changed teams through the free market in 2019, no player selected for the best team of the season has changed hands in the free market.

So, what happened? There are a few things. Less than a year after that crazy 2019 offseason, the COVID-19 outbreak occurred. This actually freezes the salary cap for three years and creates an environment that prevents many top players from daring to the free agent market. So they started signing contract renewal. It took the team a little while to realize what was going on, but a turning point came in 2021. Several teams have accumulated years of salary space in anticipation of Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming a free agent that summer. As a result, Antetokounmpo re-signed in Milwaukee, and there are no real stars in the market to chase. Suddenly, half of the teams in the league were bidding for Kyle Lowry, and the teams realized that the cap space was no longer so precious.

This forms a feedback loop. The team began to reduce their reserves for salary cap space because the free agent market is no longer worthy of heavy investment; so the players began to sign contracts more frequently because there was less salary space available for them to sign; this further weakened the resource pool of the free agent market, thereby reducing the team's enthusiasm for accumulating salary space, and this cycle continued. We are about to enter the offseason in 2025, and only the Nets currently have considerable salary space. The new model is: as long as the players can get close to fair market value, they will sign a contract renewal. Then, if they want to leave later, just force the team to trade.

So, of course we can preview the free agent market (we did, too!). The real contract issues that need to be resolved this offseason revolve around contract renewal. Although there are their own set of rules for the Super Max and Rookie Renewal, most players who are eligible for renewal will follow the standard veteran contract rules this offseason.

So what are these rules?

·Players with three or four-year contracts are eligible to renew their contract when the last contract is signed for the second anniversary.

·Players who sign longer contracts are eligible to renew their contracts when they reach their third anniversary.

·The veteran's salary for the first year of renewal of the contract can reach up to 140% of the player's salary in the last year of the current contract, whichever is the lowest.

·Any player who signs a veteran contract renewal, regardless of his previous salary, can earn up to 140% of the NBA’s estimated average salary in his first year.

· Veteran player contract renewal can include a maximum increase of 8% per year.

·The total years of any contract (plus the remaining years of the player's existing contract) shall not exceed five seasons.

These are the basic rules. In a few specific cases, there are some more obscure rules or concepts that will determine what players and teams can or should do. Well, with all these factors in mind, let's dive into some of the most noteworthy renewal candidates this year's offseason. We won't discuss players who are obviously going to get the maximum salary here. I have written about Luca Doncic's choice in other articles; Nikola Jokic and Shea Alexander both qualify for a super maximum salary renewal, it's just a question of when or whether they're willing to sign. The players we are discussing here are those who have to negotiate or need to make a difficult decision on whether to renew the contract now. We will start with contract negotiations that may be the most eye-catching this offseason.

1.Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies

For Jackson, the 140% limit is quite tricky. His current contract is not only far below the market value, but is also decreasing year by year. This has led to his salary cap cap of only $23.6 million in the 2025-26 season. With a 140% increase, he can't get close to his maximum salary, and the Grizzlies can't risk him entering the free market in 2026, where the Lakers may be waiting for him with maximum salary space. If the Grizzlies plan to keep him, they need to find a way to renew his contract this offseason. Fortunately, the Grizzlies have a way to do this. The Grizzlies did not intend to renew his contract based on the standard veteran player contract plan, but instead renegotiate and extend his contract through the salary cap space. The basic premise is: they will increase his salary in the 2025-26 season, and then on this basis, he will be given a contract renewal of 140%. They traded Marcus Smart to the Washington Wizards on the trading deadline and began the process. They will likely also give up John Conchar at some point to continue making room. The Grizzlies need about $14 million in space to get Jackson's maximum salary in contract extensions. Currently, they have about $4.5 million in space. This is a gap that can be made up.

Of course, if any accidents occur, the situation becomes much more interesting. If the Grizzlies can’t create the necessary cap space, Jackson will likely be a free agent next summer. If Jackson decides not to renew his contract with Memphis, he will be one of the most interesting trade candidates this summer due to his lower salary cap figure (23.6 million) next season. Almost any team can afford his contract at least next season. Desmond Bain's trade cleared the way for the Grizzlies' possible reconstruction - if they wanted it. But for the moment, they are reportedly not planning to initiate a reconstruction. They want to re-arm the team around Jackson and Ja Morant, and that starts with the actual signing of Jackson.

2.Trey Young, the Hawks

Yang was a maximum-paid player in the old era. A 26-year-old four-time All-Star guard who is good at creating shooting opportunities, averages 25 points per game in his career and has just led the NBA assists list? In any other labor agreement environment, this is undoubtedly a maximum-paid player. But now we live in the era of rich people, and the team must be careful to calculate every penny. Jaylen Johnson will start executing an expensive maximum-salary rookie contract extension next season. Dyson Daniels is likely to receive a similar contract renewal this offseason, and the Hawks hope to retain some degree of flexibility to strengthen this core lineup.

Although Yang's offensive value is huge, he is a potential and difficult problem on the defensive end. He has improved on off-ball offense, but that has never been his strong point. Currently, his overall ranking in the NBA may be between 20 and 30. It is not feasible to give players of this level a maximum salary in the current environment. Young will likely respond by seeking a maximum salary in the free agent market in 2026.

What a serious threat is this? The Eagles have tried the possibility of trading Young in the past, but have never found an acceptable offer. He is a player who is extremely valuable in very specific situations, and few teams are willing to replicate such a situation. How many championship teams can completely give him control of the offensive to unilaterally control and protect him on the defensive end? Can a team like the Nets, which has a clean salary space like a blank paper, do it? Will a team like the Clippers who are in a transitional period and are paying off their draft pick debts give him the team to his control? Maybe. But this is not sure.

Yang's maximum salary contract amount is US$229 million in four years. Atlanta's goal will be to cut off a considerable portion — say 30 million or $40 million — so they can design the contract structure as a fixed salary contract, or his annual salary decreases year by year as his young teammate's salary rises. The negotiation may not be pleasant. Young, like Brandon Ingram last season's offseason, will be one of our first real stress tests on this new labor agreement. What exactly is a maximum-paid player? We're about to find the answer.

3. Fred VanVleet, the Rockets re-signed Steven Adams on a rather interesting three-year, $39 million contract last weekend. The contract's annual salary is decreasing year by year to help the Rockets cope with the huge expenses that their young players are about to bring, but this also makes their current salary extremely high. Currently, they have a total salary of US$211 million, and they have actually surpassed the second tyrant line. Of course, they can easily drop offline by cutting off the $8 million non-guaranteed contract from Landale. Don't be surprised if they traded their 10th first-round pick for a future draft pick (to avoid paying the rookie this year and preventing no playing time like Reed Shepard's rookie year). But no matter what, the Rockets' payroll will be very expensive next season.

This is where Fred VanVleet might come into play. He has a $44.9 million team option next season. The Rockets can now solve all their financial troubles by refusing to execute this option, but they hope to keep him for a long time. So, we'll likely see the Rockets offer him a multi-year contract. However, the structure of this contract may have a variety of different options. If the Rockets want to save money this season, they can refuse the execution option and re-sign a contract with Van Vreett, such as $30 million next season, with multiple future seasons attached. But if they are willing to pay the luxury tax this year and take the risk of hitting the luxury tax line, there is another option: keep Van Freit's $44.9 million option for annual salary…but give him a lower annual salary in subsequent contract renewals.

Think of it this way: Suppose VanVleet agrees to return to Houston for three years of $75 million. The Rockets can choose to pay him $25 million a year, or they can choose to pay $45 million next season and then pay $15 million each for the next two seasons. Considering that Jabbarri Smith and Tari Ethan may be renewed soon, the contract with a pre-payment of Van Vreet may make sense. This also has the potential to make him a more useful salary balance chip when trading in mid-seasons involving star players. But doing so means the Rockets will pay a heavier luxury tax bill this season. Both structures may be reasonable, depending on other Rockets plans.

To be continued...